di Luca Mirone
An imminent breakthrough in Ukraine
currently appears unrealistic. Freezing hopes of a ceasefire
negotiation came from the Kremlin, making it clear that Vladimir
Putin has no plans for diplomatic contacts early in the new
year. Moscow among other things has once again raised its sights
on Europe with one of its weapons at its disposal, gas,
announcing a cut-off of supplies to Moldova, a candidate for EU
membership. Officially, because it has not honored its debts.
Over the past month and a half, the possibility of a start to
negotiations for Ukraine has begun to appear, albeit timidly, in
the chancelleries' thinking. Something has moved with a phone
call between Putin and Olaf Scholz in mid-November, and
especially with the first informal talks between the Russian
president and Donald Trump, but the reality is that there is
still nothing concrete, and indeed Westerners fear that Putin is
aiming to take more time to consolidate victories on the ground.
The Kremlin's ambiguity was also evident in Dmitry Peskov's
latest statements. Putin's spokesman, asked by reporters in
Moscow, let it be known that the president has no plans for
contacts with foreign leaders any time soon, "neither on Jan. 1,
2 or 3." Most importantly, he pointed out, "for now no
trajectory" for a peace process "is in sight because of the
position of the Kiev regime." Which Moscow says would make
inadmissible demands. In recent days Robert Fico tried to break
the EU's pro-Kiev front by flying to Moscow for a face-to-face
meeting with Putin, with an offer to host peace talks. The
Slovak premier at the same time lashed out at Zelensky, accusing
him of not being interested in a cease-fire. And then
threatening to cut off the flow of electricity to Kiev, or other
action, if Ukraine cuts off Russian gas supplies to Slovakia
starting Jan. 1. The Ukrainian leader's retort was harsh: Fico
is making a "short-sighted policy at Moscow's behest, which
among other things will harm the Slovak people" and distance his
country from the EU. Energy is a sensitive issue in this war,
and Russia has already shown that it uses its inexhaustible gas
resources to put pressure on the Europeans. Not surprisingly,
news has come from Moscow that Gazprom has decided to cut
supplies to Moldova to zero as of January 1. On the grounds that
the authorities in Chisinau "refuse to settle their debts." The
Russian group also "reserves the right" to take further action,
including terminating the gas contract with Moldova. Immediate
protest from Moldovan Premier Dorin Recean: "The government
condemns this repressive tactic and reiterates that it does not
recognize any alleged debt, which has been declared invalid by
an international audit." The gas dispute between Moscow and
Chisinau dates back to before the start of the war in Ukraine,
but relations have been at an all-time low since the Moldovan
authorities accelerated on the path of integration toward the
EU, culminating in a referendum that sanctioned yes to
membership (albeit by a narrow margin). In addition, Moldovan
President Maia Sandu, a fervent pro-European, has just been
confirmed for a second term at the end of an election tarnished
by accusations of Kremlin meddling in the former Soviet
republic. On the military front in Ukraine, meanwhile, Kiev
Armed Forces chief Oleksandr Syrskyi took stock of 2024,
admitting that it was a "difficult" year, but claiming at the
same time that "the Russians paid the highest price since the
beginning of the invasion in terms of losses: 421,000 dead and
wounded." In Moscow, on the other hand, the FSB disclosed that
it had foiled a plot to kill a high-ranking Russian officer and
a war blogger with a bomb hidden in a portable loudspeaker. A
similar action to the one that had cost the life of General Igor
Kirillov, commander of the Nuclear, Chemical and Biological
Defense Troops, on December 17.
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